Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Geek Culture HVN Regionals
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-6-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1370
· median 1370
· range 1266–1474
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1270
Q3 1411
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Water Fractal | 11.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
